Louisiana Economy Forecasting Model Provides Projections for Q3 2026 through Q2 2027

The Department of Economics within the LSU E. J. Ourso College of Business launched the Louisiana Economy Forecasting Model in 2023 as a service to the state. This model provides economic forecasts for Louisiana and the state’s nine metropolitan areas for the current quarter and three quarters ahead. New forecasts are published quarterly. No subjective adjustments are made to any of the model’s forecasts.

At the state level, forecasts are generated for four key economic variables: real Gross State Product (GSP) (a measure of the real value of goods and services produced within Louisiana, analogous to national real GDP), total non-farm employment, the total unemployment rate, and the Louisiana house price index. Due to data limitations, only total non-farm employment is forecast at the metro level.

 

Latest Highlights 

The forecasts for the third quarter of 2026 through the second quarter of 2027 suggest continuing growth in state employment of 0.7% (implying an increase of about 15,000 jobs over the level in the second quarter of 2026) but stronger growth of 1.1% in real GSP, the best single measure of overall state economic activity.

Although employment is forecast to rise in each of the state’s metro areas except for the Hammond MSA, employment in only three of the state’s metro areas is forecast to grow at a rate approaching 1% or greater:

• Houma-Thibodaux-Bayou Cane at a rate of 3.1%
• New Orleans-Metairie at a rate of 1.9%
• Slidell-Mandeville-Covington at a rate of 1.1%
• Lake Charles MSA at a rate of 0.9%

The greatest forecast uncertainty is for the Monroe MSA with its ongoing data center related construction activity. The unemployment rate is forecast to slowly decline to 4.1% in the second quarter of 2027. House prices are forecast to rise at a rate of 1.9% for the current forecast period.

See all the details in the forecast report.

REVIEW THE CURRENT LOUISIANA AND METRO-LEVEL FORECASTS

 

About the Department of Economics

The Department of Economics at LSU’s E. J. Ourso College of Business offers courses that provide undergraduate and graduate students with strong analytic training and the tools to understand the economic and social problems faced both domestically and internationally. The numerous awards received and peer-reviewed scholarly articles published in high-quality economic journals demonstrate the faculty’s commitment to quality teaching and research.

For more information, visit the Department of Economics or call 225-578-5211.