Louisiana Economy Forecasting Model Provides Projections for Q1 2026 through Q4 2026
February 11, 2026
The Department of Economics within the LSU E. J. Ourso College of Business launched the Louisiana Economy Forecasting Model in 2023 as a service to the state. This model provides economic forecasts for Louisiana and the state’s nine metropolitan areas for the current quarter and three quarters ahead. New forecasts are published quarterly.
At the state level, forecasts are generated for four key economic variables: real Gross State Product (GSP) (a measure of the real value of goods and services produced within Louisiana, analogous to national real GDP), total non-farm employment, the total unemployment rate, and the Louisiana house price index. Due to data limitations, only total non-farm employment is forecast at the metro level.
Dashboard Highlights
The forecasts for the first quarter of 2026 through the fourth quarter of 2026 suggest
continuing slow growth in state employment of 1% but stronger growth of 2% in real
GSP, the best single measure of overall state economic activity.
Although employment is forecast to rise in each of the state’s metro areas, employment in only 5 of the state’s metro areas is forecast to grow at a rate of 1% or greater: New Orleans-Metairie at a rate of 2.4%, Houma-Thibodaux-Bayou Cane at a rate of 2%, Slidell-Mandeville-Covington at a rate of 1.5%, Lake Charles at a rate of 1.2%, and Baton Rouge at a rate of 1%.
The unemployment rate is forecast to slowly decline to 3.7% in the fourth quarter of 2026.
House prices are forecast to rise at a rate of 2.3% for the current forecast period.
See the details in the forecast report.
REVIEW THE CURRENT LOUISIANA AND METRO-LEVEL FORECASTS
About the Department of Economics
The Department of Economics at LSU’s E. J. Ourso College of Business offers courses that provide undergraduate and graduate students with strong analytic training and the tools to understand the economic and social problems faced both domestically and internationally. The numerous awards received and peer-reviewed scholarly articles published in high-quality economic journals demonstrate the faculty’s commitment to quality teaching and research.
For more information, visit the Department of Economics or call 225-578-5211.