Louisiana Economy Forecasting Model Provides Projections for Q4 2025 through Q3 2026
December 03, 2025
The Department of Economics within the LSU E. J. Ourso College of Business launched the Louisiana Economy Forecasting Model in 2023 as a service to the state. This model provides economic forecasts for Louisiana and the state’s nine metropolitan areas for the current quarter and three quarters ahead. New forecasts are published quarterly.
At the state level, forecasts are generated for four key economic variables: real Gross State Product (GSP) (a measure of the real value of goods and services produced within Louisiana, analogous to national real GDP), total non-farm employment, the total unemployment rate, and the Louisiana house price index. Due to data limitations, only total non-farm employment is forecast at the metro level.
Dashboard Highlights
Please note that, due to the federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis are running behind the normal schedule for releasing employment and GDP data for the third quarter of 2025.
Consequently, the forecasts referenced in this press release are based on forecasts of data for the third quarter of 2025. Once the official data for the third quarter are released, the forecasts for the 4th Quarter of 2025-3rd Quarter of 2026 will be updated.
The forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2025 through the third quarter of 2026 suggest
continuing slow growth in state economic activity and employment.
At the state level, employment for this forecast horizon is forecast to grow slowly at a rate of 0.7%. Employment in only 4 of the state’s metro areas is forecast to grow at a rate greater than 1%: New Orleans-Metairie at a rate of 2.2%, Houma-Thibodaux-Bayou Cane at a rate of 1.9%, Slidell-Mandeville-Covington at a rate of 1.4%, and Baton Rouge at a rate of 1.1%.
The unemployment rate is forecast to slowly decline to 4.1% in the third quarter of 2026.
Real GSP, the best single measure of overall state economic activity, is forecast to grow at a rate of 1.7%.
House prices are forecast to rise at a rate of 2.3% for the current forecast period.
See the details in the forecast report.
REVIEW THE CURRENT LOUISIANA AND METRO-LEVEL FORECASTS
About the Department of Economics
The Department of Economics at LSU’s E. J. Ourso College of Business offers courses that provide undergraduate and graduate students with strong analytic training and the tools to understand the economic and social problems faced both domestically and internationally. The numerous awards received and peer-reviewed scholarly articles published in high-quality economic journals demonstrate the faculty’s commitment to quality teaching and research.
For more information, visit the Department of Economics or call 225-578-5211.