Louisiana Economy Forecasting Model Provides 2024 Projection

The Department of Economics within the LSU E. J. Ourso College of Business launched the Louisiana Economy Forecasting Model in 2023 as a service to the state. This model provides economic forecasts for Louisiana and the state’s nine metropolitan areas for the current quarter and three quarters ahead. New forecasts are published quarterly.

At the state level, forecasts are generated for four key economic variables: real Gross State Product (GSP) (a measure of the real value of goods and services produced within Louisiana, analogous to national real GDP), total non-farm employment, the total unemployment rate, and the Louisiana house price index. Due to data limitations, only total non-farm employment is forecast at the metro level.

Dashboard Highlights 

The forecasts for the first quarter of 2024 through the fourth quarter of 2024 present a mixed picture of slow growth in state and metro area economic activity. 

At the state level, employment is forecasted to continue its rebound from the pandemic low and hit the pre-pandemic level in the 2nd quarter of 2024. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise slightly over the course of the year but will remain below its longer-run average. Real GSP, the total volume of goods and services produced within Louisiana, will continue its slow rise from the pandemic low, while the all-transactions Louisiana house price index is forecast to continue its slight decline from its peak in 2022.

The report also includes metro-level non-farm employment forecasts for Alexandria, Baton Rouge, Hammond, Houma-Thibodaux, Lafayette, Lake Charles, Monroe, New Orleans-Metairie, and Shreveport-Bossier City.

 

review the current louisiana and metro-level forecasts

About the Department of Economics

The Department of Economics at LSU’s E. J. Ourso College of Business offers courses that provide undergraduate and graduate students with strong analytic training and the tools to understand the economic and social problems faced both domestically and internationally. The numerous awards received and peer-reviewed scholarly articles published in high-quality economic journals demonstrate the faculty’s commitment to quality teaching and research.

For more information, visit the Department of Economics or call 225-578-5211.