New Louisiana Economy Forecasting Model Provides Community Leaders with Beneficial Statistics
August 24, 2023
The Department of Economics within the LSU E. J. Ourso College of Business has launched the Louisiana Economy Forecasting Model as a service to the State. This model provides economic forecasts for Louisiana and the state’s nine metropolitan areas for the current quarter and three quarters ahead. New forecasts will be published quarterly.
At the state level, forecasts are generated for four key economic variables: real Gross State Product (GSP) (a measure of the real value of goods and services produced within Louisiana, analogous to national real GDP), total non-farm employment, the total unemployment rate, and the Louisiana house price index. Due to data limitations, only total non-farm employment is forecast at the metro level.
The forecasts for the third quarter of 2023 through the second quarter of 2024 present a mixed picture of state and metro area economic activity.
At the state level, employment is forecast to continue its post-pandemic rebound and rise close to its pre-pandemic level by the end of the forecast period. No dramatic changes are forecast for the unemployment rate; it is forecast to rise slightly over the forecast horizon. However, real GSP, which hasn’t rebounded strongly from its pandemic low, is forecast to remain at essentially the same level through the first half of next year, well below its pre-pandemic level. The Louisiana house price index is forecast to continue its slow decline from its post-pandemic peak.
The report also includes metro-level non-farm employment forecasts for Alexandria,
Baton Rouge, Hammond, Houma-Thibodaux, Lafayette, Lake Charles, Monroe, New Orleans-Metairie,
and Shreveport-Bossier City.
About the Department of Economics
The Department of Economics at LSU’s E. J. Ourso College of Business offers courses that provide undergraduate and graduate students with strong analytic training and the tools to understand the economic and social problems faced both domestically and internationally. The numerous awards received and peer-reviewed scholarly articles published in high-quality economic journals demonstrate the faculty’s commitment to quality teaching and research. For more information, visit the Department of Economics or call 225-578-5211.