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History’s Storms Could Help Predict Those of the Future Can a storm that occurred more than 350 years ago provide information about our world today? In 1633, a typhoon struck the Guangdong Province on the southeastern coast of China. The typhoon spawned 10 days of torrential rain. Houses collapsed. Naval vessels were destroyed. People lost their lives. At the time, the typhoon was attributed to a “mischievous dragon.” LSU geography and anthropology professor Kam-biu Liu is developing a different theory about what caused this storm and what causes intense storms like it by using a method of research called “paleotempestology.” Liu, along with a group of colleagues, recently searched through more than 1,000 years of historical records in China. The researchers were looking for historical references to large storms. They then compared the historical records to available instrumental observations about the environment. Some interesting findings emerged. During one of the most active periods of typhoon landfalls, there was virtually no sunspot activity. This span of typhoon activity also corresponds with the coldest and driest period the Northern hemisphere has experienced in the past 500 years. Liu speculates that climatic changes may not necessarily significantly reduce or increase the frequency of tropical cyclone activity. However, these changes may shift the storm tracks and make the storms more likely to hit a particular area. Liu believes that comparing the historical records with instrumental data will enable him to develop an understanding of the conditions that spawn and control large storms. Ultimately, if researchers can recognize the conditions creating the storms and the mechanisms that control the pathways of storms, perhaps the severe loss of life can be avoided and property damage can be reduced. Liu, a leader in the field of paleotempestology, also takes cores from coastal lakes and marshes on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and from the Atlantic Coast to study the sand layers left by prehistoric hurricanes. From these geological records, he was able to study the frequency of catastrophic storms going back over the past 5,000 years. Last updated September 2002
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